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Investors pour into trend following after banner years and bail during drawdowns — buying high and selling low. Why the disciplined move is to add during the drawdown, especially with event risk (El Niño, geopolitics, disaster season) building on the horizon.
May CPI hit 4.2%, but it’s an oil shock from the Iran war that’s already reversing as the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Why we think inflation looks transitory — and why the Fed’s next move may be a cut, not a hike.
If your trend-following system has struggled, you’re in good company — the largest CTA programs faced the same 2025 headwinds. Here’s what the data shows, why the environment was so hostile, and how to navigate it without abandoning a sound process.
