Through the first three quarters of 2026, a strategy most investors never think about quietly did something it isn’t supposed to be able to do: it beat the S&P 500 — and it did it while bonds were falling apart.
The strategy is trend following, the engine behind most managed futures programs. For years the knock on it was that it “only works in a crisis.” 2026 is making a more interesting case: that it can lead even in a year when stocks are up too.
The numbers: up about 15.7% through Q3
The SG CTA Index — the industry benchmark for commodity trading advisors — returned roughly 15.7% over the nine months through the end of September 2026, according to Societe Generale data reported by CNBC. Over the same stretch, the S&P 500 returned about 11.7%.
One important caveat up front: an index is not a product, and it is not our results or anyone else’s. It is an average of a group of managers, and individual programs varied widely around it. But as a read on how the broad strategy performed, the gap is real — and it came mostly from a handful of persistent moves rather than one lucky trade.
Why it’s working: three trades did the heavy lifting
Trend followers don’t forecast. They take positions in the direction a market is already moving and stay with the move until it turns. In 2026, three of those positions lined up:
- Short Treasuries. Bond prices fell through much of the year, and the selling accelerated in September. Managers already positioned short were paid as yields climbed.
- Long the dollar. A firm dollar for much of the year added a steady tailwind.
- Long crude. Energy exposure that began back in January was amplified when Middle East supply fears pushed oil sharply higher.
None of that required calling a top or a bottom. It required a rules-based process that got positioned early and didn’t flinch.
The real story: stocks and bonds are falling together
Here is the part that matters for anyone running a traditional portfolio. For most of the last two decades, bonds rose when stocks fell — the cushion that made the classic 60/40 portfolio feel safe. In 2026 that relationship flipped at times: stocks and bonds have fallen together, which strips the diversification out of 60/40 exactly when you need it most.
Trend following does not depend on that relationship. When bonds fall, a trend system can simply be short them and profit — something a long-only 60/40 portfolio structurally cannot do. That is why the strategy has historically shown low, and at times negative, correlation to stocks and bonds, and why it tends to earn its keep in precisely the environments that hurt everything else.
A word of caution
None of this is a victory lap. Trend following has quiet years and real drawdowns — stretches where markets chop sideways and the strategy gives back ground while it waits for the next sustained move. This year’s leadership can reverse, and 2026’s winning trades can become next year’s losing ones. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and no strategy removes the risk of loss. Trend following is a long-term allocation, not a timing tool.
How to capture it without running it yourself
The appeal of trend following has never really been in doubt — the obstacle has always been implementation. Running a diversified futures program means systems, execution, margin, and oversight across dozens of markets, which is why most investors who believe in the strategy still don’t hold it.
That is the gap we close. We run rules-based futures systems — short-term and long-term — in an account held in your name, with professional execution and full visibility. You get exposure to the strategy without building the infrastructure to trade it.
If you would like to see how the systems are built and how they might fit alongside what you already hold, you can review our trading systems or request a strategy performance report and we will send the details directly.
Important risk disclosure: Trading futures and options on futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Index returns referenced above represent the SG CTA Index and do not reflect the performance of any Wisdom Trading program or account. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing in this article is a solicitation in any jurisdiction where such an offer would be unlawful. Wisdom Trading is an independent introducing broker.